Losing Trick Count: A Better Way to Evaluate Suit Contracts

High card points are a starting point, not the whole story. You’ve probably been in a 26-point game that failed, or a 22-point game that made with an overtrick. The culprit isn’t bad luck, it’s that HCP doesn’t measure shape, and shape matters enormously in suit contracts.

Losing Trick Count (LTC) gives you a different lens: how many tricks will this hand lose?

The Basic Counting Method

For each suit, count losers as follows:

Only look at the first three cards in each suit
An ace is never a loser
A king is a loser unless the suit has an ace
A queen is a loser unless the suit has two of the top three honors (A, K)
Any card in a two-card or one-card suit: a singleton non-ace is 1 loser; a void is 0 losers

Example: ♠A-K-J-3-2 ♥Q-6-4 ♦K-7 ♣J-8-5

Spades (A-K-J): 0 losers (A and K cover, J qualifies third position)
Hearts (Q-6-4): 2 losers (Q is the only honor, 6 and 4 are losers)
Diamonds (K-7): 1 loser (K covers one, 7 is a loser)
Clubs (J-8-5): 3 losers (no high honors in first three cards)

Total: 6 losers.

Using LTC for Slam Decisions

Once you have a fit, add your losers to partner’s assumed losers:

Opener at the 1-level: assume 7 losers
Responder raising to the 2-level: assume 9 losers
A jump raise: assume 8 losers

Subtract the combined total from 24 to estimate tricks:

12 losers combined → 12 tricks (small slam)
13 losers combined → 11 tricks (game)
15 losers combined → 9 tricks (game, tight)

So if you hold 5 losers and partner shows 7, that’s 12 combined → slam territory.

LTC Works Best When

You have a confirmed 8+ card trump fit
Distribution is the main feature of the hand
You’re evaluating slam vs. game, or game vs. partscore

LTC Works Poorly When

No trump fit is established (HCP is better for notrump)
Hands are very flat (4-3-3-3 shape makes losers hard to rescue)
You’re evaluating against opponents’ bidding (the method is for constructive bidding)

The Practical Reality

Most club players use HCP exclusively and miss some slams, particularly in distributional hands. Adding a quick LTC check after finding a fit catches the cases where distribution makes the hand better than points suggest, or worse.

It’s a two-second mental count that adds a dimension most players skip.

Learn more about hand evaluation in the Bridgetastic encyclopedia. Or ask Brian about evaluating your hand for a specific auction.

📚 Further Reading: This article is part of our How to Improve Bridge Bidding, explore more guides and resources to improve your game.